(TND) — The college campus protests over the Gaza war could be an election problem for President Joe Biden, political experts said Thursday.
But the impact isn’t likely to be direct.
“I think it's more a symptom,” Oklahoma State University politics professor Seth McKee said.
“It's a sign of discontent among young people, which is a critical component of Biden's coalition,” he said.
The protests grab the headlines, but the real threat to Biden’s reelection is if disaffected young voters stay home on Election Day.
“This is a turnout issue mostly,” said Todd Belt, the Political Management program director at The George Washington University in D.C. “And so, for Biden, he needs to reenergize these young people, and voters of color, also extremely important to his electoral coalition.”
The Associated Press has tracked more than 2,900 arrests at pro-Palestine protests over the last several weeks on dozens of American college campuses.
The protesters are calling for an end to the Gaza war and divestment from Israel.
Belt has firsthand knowledge of the disruptions, as protesters held an encampment at his school for a couple of weeks. He was forced to work from home as his semester drew to a close.
“Yep, University Yard is right across the street from my office, and I'm on the fourth floor,” Belt said. “And so all of the drumming and all the chanting just funneled right up. And it was very, very loud and not easy to get work done.”
But summer is here, and the protests are fizzling.
“If by the end of summer we're talking about rebuilding Gaza and instituting a new government, then I just don't see that there's going to be the intensity of feeling that gets manifested in protests,” Belt said.
If, on the other hand, the Gaza war is still raging in the fall, then that could be a bigger problem for Biden as he looks to fend off a challenge from former President Donald Trump.
If we see continued protests this fall, Belt said we’re going to see a hardening of the positions on both sides.
Last election was much closer than people might recall. It was decided by 41,000 votes across three key states, Belt said.
Both Belt and McKee doubted young voters or pro-Palestinian protesters will defect en masse for Trump.
But they might not vote at all if they’re disillusioned with Biden’s handling of Israel’s war against Hamas.
Young voters are critical to Biden’s campaign, both experts said.
Voters 18-29 really delivered the White House to Biden in 2020, according to Belt.
“And so small changes can have big ripples on the election,” he said.
Biden, as the incumbent, is taking the brunt of the angst and frustrations from the young protesters, McKee said.
But he said the protesters might regret not turning out on Election Day for Biden.
“The craziest part of these protests is that if you understood politics, Biden is eminently better than Trump if this is your issue,” McKee said. “If you're pro-Palestinian, it makes no sense at all” to dump Biden for Trump.
Voters in general start paying more attention to an election after Labor Day, McKee said.
Partisans will come home, and independents will put up their antennas.
“I've seen polls that show it looks like Trump's leading in most battlegrounds, but there's plenty of movement there in terms of what could happen,” McKee said.
Biden’s camp will have some heavy lifting to keep its coalition together, and that means making their case to young voters for continued support, McKee said.
If we see a big drop in voter participation this time, it’ll be because young voters stayed home, he said.
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